Open Europe
Europe
New poll shows Irish are against a second referendum and would reject Lisbon by even bigger margin than before;
Irish government attacks poll
A new poll by Irish company Red C, commissioned by Open Europe, has found that 71% of Irish voters are against a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, and that, of those who expressed an opinion, 62% would vote 'no'. That would mean the "no" lead would increase from 6 points in the recent referendum to a commanding 24 point lead in a second vote.
The poll found that 17% of those who voted "yes" in the recent referendum would vote "no" in a second referendum, while only 6% of those who voted "no" would now vote "yes". Perhaps most significantly of all, those who did not vote last time would vote more than two-to-one against in a second referendum: 57% would vote "no" and 26% would vote "yes".
67% agreed with the statement that "politicians in Europe do not respect Ireland's no vote". Only 28% disagreed. 61% disagreed with the statement that "If all of the other 26 EU countries ratify the Treaty in their parliaments then Ireland has to change its mind and support the Treaty." Only 32% agreed. 53% said they would be less likely to vote for Brian Cowen at the next election if he called a second referendum. In particular, 43% of Fianna Fail voters said they would be less likely to vote for him.
The poll was widely reported in the UK, Ireland and across Europe yesterday, and coverage continues today. In particular, it was reported on in the Irish Independent on Sunday, the Irish Times, the News of the World, the Sunday Express, the Times, Le Monde, Le Figaro, Le Point, NRC Handelsblatt, Spiegel, Gazeta Wyborcza and Die Presse.
Open Europe Director Neil O'Brien is quoted saying, "EU leaders who are trying to force Ireland to vote again are playing a very dangerous game, and it looks like Brian Cowen could be putting his political life on the line by calling a second vote. By appearing to bully the voters, EU politicians are actually driving lots more people into the 'no' camp." Neil was also interviewed on Irish radio RTE.
The Irish government yesterday accused Open Europe of "meddling" in the Irish debate, claiming the poll was "biased" and "not credible". Speaking during a debate with Open Europe's Lorraine Mullally on Irish radio Newstalk, Europe Minister Dick Roche claimed the suggestion that Nicolas Sarkozy was reported to have said there should be a second referendum was "complete nonsense." He denied there had ever been any suggestion of a second referendum, saying: "you're making it up as you go along." He said the poll should be taken with "large sugar spoonfuls of salt", claiming that Open Europe had a "europhobic attitude".
This morning Lorraine Mullally appeared on RTE's Morning Ireland programme, to discuss the reaction to the poll, and argued that the Irish government was attempting to divert attention from the results.
Meanwhile, Eamon Gilmore, the leader of Ireland's Labour Party, said the concerns over the slowdown in the Irish economy should take precedence over any talks on Europe. Despite supporting the Lisbon Treaty, he said there should not be any discussion on having a second referendum. He said: "We've had a referendum, we've had a decision. We have to accept that decision. If you were to have a second referendum again on the Lisbon Treaty, in my opinion, you'd get the same result."
Chairwoman of the People's Movement, former Green MEP Patricia McKenna, accused Government ministers of double standards, saying "There was no concern expressed about outside interference when the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and EU vice president Margot Wallstrom came here to urge us to vote Yes. It's a bit late for the Government minister to be taking the moral high-ground now."
She said: "Our Government has never complained about polls commissioned by the EU political establishment. But because other interested parties, who have a different agenda, commission opinion polls on our attitude to Lisbon it just not acceptable." She added: "At least the results of these polls have been made available to the public. The Government on the other hand have decided to use taxpayers' money to mount extensive confidential polls to clarify the reasons underlying the referendum result and intend to withhold the results from the public. A Government that intends using our money to try and find out how to manipulate our minds when preparing for the next referendum has no moral authority to criticise the motivation behind any opinion polls."
The Irish government has initiated high-level contact with the two main opposition parties to discuss the formation of an all-party body on the Lisbon Treaty. AFP reports that Luxembourg's Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said in an interview with Austrian newspaper Kurier that Irish voters might rethink their opposition to the EU Treaty if European leaders reassured them on key issues. In the Irish Independent, John Drennan argues that Brian Cowen "needs to leave whatever attic he is hiding in and come out this September, swinging the big stick of a 'back me or sack me' surprise Lisbon referendum."
Irish Times Irish Independent Sunday Express RFI EUobserver AFP Times Belfast Telegraph RTE Pravda SK Adevarul Irish Times Le Point Irish Independent leader EUobserver Sunday Express Young Irish Times Hennessy Spiegel Die Presse NZZ Morning Ireland Irish Independent AFP NRC Handelsblad Le Figaro Gazeta Wyborcza Sunday Express L'Express Le Monde Sunday Business Post Observer
Open Europe poll: press release Open Europe poll: full results
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