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Europe
13 June: Irish bookies already paying out on a yes vote
Vote counting has begun in Ireland's referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. RTE reports turnout is estimated to have been in the mid-40s percentage range. Le Figaro quotes Irish Europe Minister Dick Roche last night saying that turnout "seems good - between 55% and 60%". AP reports that Ireland's major gambling company, Paddy Power PLC, fanned hopes in the pro-treaty camp by paying out more than 180,000 euros (US$280,000) in winning bets to people who wagered on a "Yes" victory. Paddy Power spokeswoman Sharon McHugh said the company decided a "Yes" appeared the likely outcome -- despite the low turnout and the fact not a single ballot had been counted -- because gamblers inundated their Irish web site with big bets for a treaty triumph in the hours before polling closed.
Yesterday, Pope Benedict XVI appeared to encourage Catholic Ireland to vote 'Yes'. In St Peter's Square, the Pontiff paid tribute to St Columbanus, a monk from Co Meath who led a mission into Europe in AD500. He said, "With his spiritual strength, with his faith, with his love of God and neighbour, he became one of the Fathers of Europe, showing us today the way to those roots from which our continent may be reborn." RTE reports that the final official result is expected to be announced late this afternoon, but tallies from the 43 constituencies should give a good indication of the likely outcome late this morning.
According to Reuters, Britain has told other EU member states that it will complete the ratification process whatever the result of Ireland's referendum, set to be announced this afternoon. "It is the intention of this government to complete the legislative programme that it has begun on the Lisbon Treaty," a cabinet official in London said.
Meanwhile, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said, "If the Irish decide to reject the Lisbon treaty, obviously, there will be no Lisbon treaty."
AFP reports that French Europe Minister Jean-Pierre Jouyet has said that if the Irish vote no, a "legal arrangement" between it and the other 26 member states would be found. He said, "the most important thing is that the ratification process continues in the other countries, and to see with the Irish people what legal arrangement we can find." He said a no vote would mean "that legally there would be no treaty", but that "we've been discussing the EU's institutional problems for 10 years and we must remain within the Lisbon Treaty framework." Asked whether Europe would be reduced to 26 countries, he said, "We cannot make a country leave Europe which has been in it for 35 years. But we can find some methods of specific cooperation."
EUobserver Guido FT Guardian Telegraph BBC Today El Pais BBC mardell RTE El Mundo Euractiv BBC AFP Economist blog AP
Comment: The idea that a low turnout is good for the no camp is almost certainly wrong. In the one Irish Times poll which showed the no camp ahead by 35 to 30, also showed that 85% of yes voters said they were very likely to vote compared to 81% of no voters.
In an article in Le Monde on the Lords' vote against a referendum this week, Labour's Lord Anderson is quoted saying, "The Lisbon Treaty is totally different to the Constitution. The democratic argument in favour of a referendum is very weak."
EU haulage liberalisation raises fears of unfair competition against UK firms
The FT reports that European transport ministers meeting on Friday in Luxembourg are split over a Commission proposal to give foreign trucks extended rights to shift loads within countries they are visiting.
Britain and several other countries have reservations. Liberalising the market for so-called cabotage will threaten the livelihoods of smaller companies, hauliers claim. The UK, where higher diesel duties mean fuel costs are much higher than on the continent, would be especially hard hit. Jack Semple, Policy Director of the Road Haulage Association, which represents UK truckers, said: "We would have no objection if there was a level playing field but there is not. Our costs are much higher."
Le Figaro reports that the European Commission is thinking about suspending accession negotiations with Turkey, should the main Islamic party the AKP be declared illegal under an ongoing court case.
Europe's biodiesel producers will today urge the European Commission to levy punitive duties on US rivals, reports the Guardian.
Le Monde reports that the autonomous Finnish islands of Aland are threatening to reject the Lisbon Treaty in protest against the banning of snus within the EU.
The Telegraph reports that ordinary Germans have begun to reject euro bank notes with serial numbers from Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal, apparently suspecting that southern notes may lose value in a crisis, or if the eurozone breaks apart.
UK
David Davis quits over 42 days detention
Shadow Home secretary David Davis dramatically quit as an MP yesterday in order to fight a by-election in his seat on the issue of detention of terror suspects. Former Sun editor Kelvin Mackenzie, a vocal supporter of 42 day terror detention, has said he will challenge Mr Davis in the poll.
Forsyth: MEP sleaze shows selection must be up to conservative activists
The Economist argues that "Mr Cameron has adopted a high-minded attitude towards money in politics, pressing the government to tighten the law on donations and pledging to root out chicanery in his own party. Any sleaze stories that do emerge can therefore be spun by the Labour opposition as proof of hypocrisy, even if they are actually just the inevitable results of an internal audit. The case of Mr Chichester, appointed by Mr Cameron to ensure the integrity of Tory MEPs' expenses, is an embarrassing example. Sleaze alone did not doom the last Tory government, and it is unlikely by itself to forestall a new one. But further plunges in the public's already low opinion of politicians could limit enthusiasm (and indeed electoral turnout) for Mr Cameron."
Frederick Forsyth argues in the Express that David Cameron should use the 2009 European elections as an opportunity to clean up EU politics, and should start by putting MEP selection back in the hands of Conservative activists.
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