Open Europe press summary: 30 October 2009

Europe

Blair's chances of becoming EU President dwindle following backroom deal between Sarkozy and Merkel
Media reports across Europe note that Tony Blair's prospects of becoming President of the European Council are diminishing, after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy during a dinner on Wednesday appear to have decided that the post should go to a centre-right politician. This seems to be part of a deal between Europe's political leaders, in which the Left would nominate a candidate for the post of EU Foreign Minister, while the group of centre-right governments would nominate the President -- effectively ruling out Mr Blair. FT Deutschland writes: "one thing seems certain: the British Prime Minister is out of the game".

Jean-David Levitte, Sarkozy's foreign policy adviser, said last night that it was unlikely that France would support a presidential candidate from the UK - despite Sarkozy having previously announced his support for Blair. Levitte said: "The UK is not in the eurozone, nor in the Schengen and it has a number of opt outs. These are not advantageous in this search for a candidate."

Spanish newspapers report that Prime Minister Jose Zapetero, who also was expected to back Blair, has said that European centre-left leaders have "a preference for the high representative. That is rather reasonable." The Times notes that Zapatero also appeared to be echoing French concerns over a British candidate. "I want a real European president who wants to strengthen the union. He has to be in favour of the union and of the common policies," he said.

Meanwhile, several smaller member states still favour a low-profile "chairman" candidate for the post, rather than a high-profile figure. Matti Vanhanen, the Finnish Prime Minister, said yesterday: "The role of the permanent president -- he or she is really the chairman of the European Council, not the President of Europe. The job is to prepare items for the European Council." The Irish media notes that Irish PM Brian Cowen has withdrawn his support for Blair in favour of the country's former PM John Bruton.

Gordon Brown yesterday came out strongly backing Tony Blair's candidacy, saying that he would become "an excellent President" and that having him in the position "is in the British national interest." Brown yesterday met with European socialist leaders from across Europe, with Sueddeutsche Zeitung noting that Brown and Martin Schultz, head of the European Socialists in the European Parliament, had a "heated clash". The British PM urged the participants at the meeting to "get real" about the advantages of Blair becoming President. However, Schulz is quoted in the German press saying: "The holder of the office must come from a country which embraces all the political institutions of the union, such as the Schengen agreement or the euro. Britain does not meet those criteria."

A YouGov poll for the Telegraph showed that fewer than one in three British voters want Blair to become the first president of the EU. In a poll of 50 Labour backbenchers by the Guardian, 35 said they backed the former prime minster for the role and 15 did not.

Other candidates for the post include Jan Peter Balkenende, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Jean-Claude Juncker, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, and Wolfgang Schüssel, the former Chancellor of Austria.

The apparent unlikelihood of Blair becoming President has boosted the chances of a Briton taking on the Foreign Minister role. Foreign Secretary David Miliband has been shortlisted by the socialist grouping in the European Parliament but Miliband and Gordon Brown were quick to disqualify him from the running. The Guardian quotes him saying, "Not available, as the prime minister said." The Economist's Charlemagne writes "He insists that he is not 'available' for the High Rep post but, tellingly, he earned praise from EU types for a speech on October 26th, calling for Europe to get its act together or become 'spectators in a G2 world' shaped by China and America."

According to Swedish media, the Swedish Presidency could call an extra EU Council meeting around 12-13 November to decide on the names for EU President and Foreign Minister.
Mail Sun Sun 2 Telegraph Telegraph-Randall IHT Sydsvenskan Europaportalen Jyllands-Posten Irish Times: Waters Independent: Richards Guardian Times Times: Analysis Economist BBC: Gavin Hewitt's blog FT FT 2 Irish Independent Independent ABC.es Guardian Irish Times Irish Times 2 Irish Times Opinion Irish Independent EUobserver Guardian Economist: Charlemagne FT: Stephens Guardian Economist: Charlemagne FT: Stephens LeMonde El Mundo El Mundo 2 La Razon

Conservatives to promise a "referendum guarantee" on future transfer of power to EU
The Mail reports that the Conservatives are preparing to promise a "referendum guarantee" on all future transfers of power to Brussels. The paper notes that senior members of the party accept it would be futile to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty if it has already been ratified across the EU by the time they hope to win power next spring.

The article notes that the next Conservative government will amend the 1972 European Communities Act, which first allowed EU law to be incorporated into the British legal system. If a future government tries to transfer further competences from Britain to the EU, a national referendum before it could be ratified would be required by law.

Speaking on the BBC's Newsnight programme about what a Conservative government would do if the Lisbon Treaty was in force, former Foreign Secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind, said that in his view, "a Conservative government will want to negotiate for a repatriation of powers - it will take some time to do that - and at the end of that process I have no doubt that the Conservative government would want to have a referendum of the British public to see whether it was satisfied with what had been done."

The Economist's Bagehot argues that, by leaving the EPP grouping in the European Parliament, the Conservatives "have alienated and baffled other European conservatives. By abdicating the centre of European politics for the fringe, the Tories have convinced many in Europe that they can legitimately be ignored."
Mail BBC: Newsnight Independent: Hamilton Etoile Economist: Bagehot

EU leaders grant Vaclav Klaus' demand on Lisbon Treaty
Several newspapers report that EU leaders agreed to grant the Czech Republic assurances on the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights in order to ensure the final ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. EUobserver quotes Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt saying: "The European Council has been able to take a decision and agree on what has been asked for by the Czech Republic". The article notes that the 'opt-out' will be ratified after the Lisbon Treaty has gone into place and probably as part of a future EU accession treaty.

Slovakia was granted a declaration that simply confirmed that the Charter is "addressed...to the member states only when they are implementing Union law." The article notes that the deal satisfied both Slovakia and Hungary that the Charter would not affect the current Benes Decrees on property rights in the countries.

DPA notes that if the Czech Constitutional Court rejects legal complaints against the Lisbon Treaty next Tuesday, Czech President Vaclav Klaus will give his signature in November. The article says that the Lisbon Treaty shall then come into force on 1 December, according to French delegates at the EU summit.
Stern Kurier FAZ Die Presse Handelsblatt Sueddeutsche ORF Ad Hoc News DPA LeMonde EUobserver FT Irish Times El País La Razon ABC.es Guardian

EU to charter flights to deport illegal immigrants
The Telegraph reports that the EU is drawing up plans to charter its own flights to return illegal immigrants to their home countries. Under the plan, individual member states would be able to claim seats on flights for rejected asylum seekers they wish to remove, funded and operated by Frontex, the EU's external border agency. The article notes that the plan is set to be approved at today's EU summit.
Telegraph

In an interview with Hungarian daily Magyar Nemzet, Open Europe's Pieter Cleppe questioned the independence of think tanks working on EU policy while being funded by the EU. He said, "A lot of think tanks are financed by the European Union. How then can they assess EU policies in an independent way?"
No link

Le Figaro reports that EU member states gave the go-ahead to the creation of the European External Action Service during yesterday's EU Council summit, thus creating a powerful diplomatic service comprising the external relations portfolios of the Commission and the Council, which will be headed by the new EU Foreign Minister.
Le Figaro Open Europe blog

Eastern European states say they cannot afford current EU climate change proposal
EU ministers failed to reach any agreement over climate change action yesterday, as disputes over funding continued. The Guardian reports that Poland and other eastern European member states threatened to block agreement on a financial package for the developing world. "In its current form, the burden sharing is not acceptable," said Gordon Bajnai, the Hungarian Prime Minister, a view shared by many members from Eastern Europe. In addition, contrary to assertions by Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt that "we need a figure", France and Germany continue to argue that specific budgetary commitments should not be made until the UN climate change summit in Copenhagen this December.
Guardian Independent AP El País Le Figaro Le Monde EUobserver

French Foreign Affairs Minister Bernard Kouchner has sent a letter of congratulations to Guido Westervelle on his appointment as Germany's Foreign Affairs Minister, writing: "the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty will allow us [France and Germany] to play an even more active role on the European and international scenes...Our governments will have to continue...developing together new initiatives in favour of European integration and a controlled globalisation."
French Foreign Ministry

Miliband asked to apologise for 'anti-Semite' accusations against Conservative ally
PA reports that Foreign Secretary David Miliband has been asked to apologise for his criticism of MEP Michal Kaminski as an anti-Semite after the Chief Rabbi of Poland condemned such comments as a "painful and false" stereotype of Poles. Kaminski is the leader of the Conservatives' new group in the European Parliament.
Conservative Home Iain Dale's Diary

Commission criticises Sarkozy's plan for more aid to the French agricultural sector
Le Figaro reports that the EU Commission did not appreciate discovering French President Nicolas Sarkozy's new agricultural intervention plan "on the TV" and that "it is normal procedure and a right [of the Commission] that such plans should not be put into place before having specified...the eligibility criteria [and] how many farmers will benefit [from aid]."
Le Figaro

Barroso puts German in key position within the EU Commission
FTD reports that the current spokesman for the Commission, Johannes Laitenberger, will become the new Head of Cabinet in November and thus one of the most powerful officials in the EU Commission. An expert of the Commission is quoted saying: "The Head of Cabinet has often more powers than many Commissioners".
FTD

Government set to shelve £23bn Severn Barrage tidal project
The Times reports that plans to build a ten-mile tidal barrage across the River Severn that could generate up to 5 per cent of Britain's electricity are likely to be shelved under a government cost-cutting drive. Advocates of the scheme, including the Sustainable Development Commission argue that it would help Britain to meet its ambitious EU targets of generating 30 per cent of UK electricity from renewable sources by 2020. Government figures show that the cost of generating electricity from a barrage across the Severn or from a tidal lagoon could be as high as £317 per megawatt hour, compared with £38 for nuclear power and no more than £85 for offshore wind.
Times Open Europe research

As Lloyds outlined plans to sidestep the Government's toxic loan insurance scheme, the group insisted that the European Commission isn't going to force huge asset sales on the firm as it has done with Dutch firm ING. Shares rose by 8 percent on the news.
WSJ WSJ: Analysis Mail Guardian

Moody's Investor Services warned the Greek and Portuguese governments of possible future downgrades of their sovereign debt.
WSJ

On Conservative Home's Centre Right blog, Matthew Sinclair writes that the EU's emissions trading scheme will cost British consumers £3bn in 2008.
Conservative Home: Sinclair Open Europe research

UK

In an analysis in Le Monde, Virginie Maingre describes David Cameron as a future Prime Minister "in search of charisma", pointing to the fact that most of the people that would vote for him would do so as a protest against Gordon Brown.
Le Monde

---

Open Europe is an independent think tank campaigning for radical reform of the EU. For information on our research, events and other activities, please visit our website: openeurope.org.uk or call us on 0207 197 2333.