A Political Retreat Concept
Berlin's government advisors are expecting "a massive amount of forgeries" and serious electoral fraud in tomorrow's parliamentary elections in Afghanistan. According to a recent analysis of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the proposals made by Afghan and international observers concerning consequences that could be taken, in light of the electoral frauds in 2004, 2005, and 2009, have been ignored by the western occupying powers. No measures have been taken to rectify even the most important deficiencies. For example 17.4 million voter registration cards have been issued, even though the number of eligible voters is less than 12.6 million. Large expanses of territory are not under the control of either the government in Kabul or NATO, which is why an orderly electoral process in these regions is very unlikely. According to the SWP, western countries have significantly reduced their participation in the observation of the elections. The EU will no longer send an "observation mission", only an "assistance mission," whose function and competence will be much more limited. The SWP draws the conclusion that the West has "renounced the objective of credible Afghan elections" and is giving "President Karzai a free hand."
War and Drug Economy
The SWP diagnoses that beyond the current elections, there will be a dismantlement of Kabul's formally democratic aspects. Under western control, Afghanistan has become "a facade democracy with an over powerful executive in relations to a parliament weak politically and in legitimacy and a judiciary that is not independent." The parliamentary elections tomorrow will permit Hamid Karzai "to also impose his will on the lower house." The SWP does not exclude the possibility of a "presidential dynasty" being formed. The SWP sees Hamid's brother, Mahmud Karzai, as his possible successor. Mahmud Karzai, "who up to now has mainly been handling the family clan's business interests, harbors political ambitions, is being promoted by the incumbent president." The SWP holds no illusions about the Karzai regime's base of power, at least that which is beyond its maintenance by the western occupiers. "This entity is on a foundation of a war and drugs economy and clientele structures."